One area that interests me with Aston Villa games is the much higher line Unai Emery is asking his defenders to play, especially at home. It’s leading to games full of offsides at Villa Park.
In their last seven home Premier League games since the World Cup restart, there have been a total of 40 offsides, working out at an average of 5.7 per match. Incredibly, Villa’s opposition have been responsible for 32 of those offside calls, showcasing just how aggressive the Emery high-line is with Palace racking up six offsides and Leicester eight in their fixtures at Villa Park.
What a weekend it was for Jones Knows! He tipped….
Ben Chilwell to score first at 33/1
Alexis Mac Allister to score first at 15/2
Bournemouth 2+ offsides at 11/10
Arsenal to win & under 4.5 goals at 10/11
Arsenal to win 3-0 at 14/1
Man Utd vs Saints 0-0 HT correct score at 5/2
Aston Villa 2+ first half shots on target at 8/11
West Ham to draw 1-1 with Villa at 6/1
The three or more Bournemouth offside line at 13/8 with Sky Bet does make sense but for a bit of security I’d rather play the total match offsides line at four or more so we can include both teams’ offside numbers, which is priced up at Evens.
To get a result at Brentford you need to be able to withstand a barrage of pressure into your box. Unashamedly direct are the Bees and it’s a style of football that many teams can cope with.
I’m confident to declare that Leicester won’t be relishing such defending. Brendan Rodgers’ side, who are without Wout Faes due to suspension, remain a brittle team that lose out in key moments in matches especially when tasked with defending their own box. The Foxes have the joint-most defeats since the World Cup with Southampton (8) and joint-most goals conceded with Everton (21) – they are most certainly in the relegation mix and 7/2 with Sky Bet for them to drop might prove to be a little chunky.
Meanwhile, Brentford are unbeaten in nine home Premier League games, winning four of their last five and possess a striker in Ivan Toney who is in his absolute element leading the line for this side. The 19/20 with Sky Bet for the home win looks on the generous side.
Forget Harry Kane, playing Ben Davies as a left-wing back seems critical to whether Tottenham function or not. Davies has been selected in that role in three of Spurs’ last six games. They won all three to an aggregate score of 7-1 while without him in that left-sided role they lost crucial games with Sheffield United, AC Milan and Wolves.
The balance he provides down that side makes Spurs tick it seems. If he does play in that role at St Mary’s then he should be backed across his attacking output markets, starting with him to have at least one shot at 11/10 with Sky Bet. He’s had seven shots in his last seven Premier League games and Spurs will be on the front-foot against the league’s basement boys.
The real beauty of this bet is that we get two methods of attack regarding how it can land. Davies is obviously given huge licence to join his front players in Antonio Conte’s system from open play but he’s also a big threat from set-pieces having scored twice this season. He is 12/1 to score again here.
Wolves have now gone 37 Premier League games without a striker scoring for them, spanning over a year. The last striker to score was Raul Jimenez against Watford in March 2022. But the signs have been promising that this barren run is about to end as Jimenez has sparked back into form over the past month.
He lead the line excellently at Fulham and missed a big chance, came off the bench to change the game in the win over Tottenham and was unlucky not to win a penalty last weekend at Newcastle in another strong individual showing. This just might be the weekend where he gets his moment in the sun. In what is likely to be edgy encounter full of fear, one goal may settle it and backing Jimenez to get it at 7/1 with Sky Bet seems a savvy play to my eyes.
Eight days can be a long time in football. In that period Graham Potter has conjured up three straight wins and confidence must be finally flowing in the Chelsea camp, which makes them hard to bet against for this one.
A bet that once again stands out for where Chelsea are concerned is the link-up between Joao Felix and Kai Havertz. Potter is building his improving attacking play around the skillset of the talented duo and it’s only a matter of time before Havertz assists Felix for a goal.
And now is the time to act with Everton in town, who are going to defend deep and allow the pair to work their magic. Havertz has created nine chances for Felix across all competitions, including two efforts that hit the woodwork to a backdrop of expected goals worth 1.2 – but they have yet to register an assist-goal combo.
Felix to score a goal assisted by Havertz is a 12/1 shot with Sky Bet. Now is the time for it to land.
Has someone double checked the fixture list to make sure Crystal Palace haven’t already played Arsenal away this season? It seems like every fixture they have at the moment is a tall order.
Patrick Vieira needs a Southampton at home fixture – and soon, as it’s now just three points separating them from the relegation zone. Saying that they did lose to Saints in the cup so perhaps I’m being too kind.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Brighton’s win against Crystal Palace in the Premier League.
The market is completely ignoring Palace at 9/1 against the league leaders but that does seem a little off considering Arsenal have a tight turnaround from Thursday and have played with a few nerves in home games of late.
Palace are struggling for creativity but they remain a hard team to put away. In their last 10 Premier League games they have only conceded nine goals – it’s the fifth best defensive record in the league for that period as having Marc Guehi and Joachim Andersen back has been a huge help.
Despite this ridiculously tough run of games that included playing Brighton and Manchester United twice, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle, Chelsea and Brentford, Vieira’s team didn’t lose by more than one goal in any 10 of those fixtures. They can keep it respectable again and the Evens for Palace with a +2 goal handicap, meaning we’ll win if they win, draw or lose by one, looks a fair price to me.