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NBA Best Bets
Record: 82-62-2 | Units: +15.5 | ROI: 9.9%
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks (-1, 240)
Oklahoma City has reached the peak of its market rating, and because of that the team is starting to slip. After their loss to the Jazz on Tuesday the Thunder fell to 3-3 SU/1-5 ATS in their last six games. The market isn’t buying the slippage and has bet them once again this morning, but I’ll push back on that concept.
Dallas is playing good basketball right now, and it is healthier than it has been in a while. Both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are probable to play today. When Doncic and Irving are on the floor the Mavericks are +6.1 per 100 possessions with a 122.7 offensive rating. Dallas is also going to debut its new piece in P.J. Washington today. Washington is a great fit for the Mavericks, as he can run with Kyrie and he provides Doncic with a good pick-and-roll partner.
Play: Mavericks ML (+120) – Playable to (+110)
Philadelphia 76ers (-4, 237) at Washington Wizards
The defense has disappeared for the Philadelphia 76ers. In their last seven games the 76ers have allowed 127.5 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Without Joel Embiid on the floor this team has no real defensive stopper. To make matters worse, they shipped off Patrick Beverley at the trade deadline. Their backcourt now consists of Tyrese Maxey, Cam Payne and Buddy Hield. That is a trio of lesser defenders who will be at the point of attack.
Washington is not a good defensive team either, but they can score against lesser defenses. They are the sixth-most efficient transition offense in the league, and they have good individual scorers in Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole. Trusting the Wizards to win a game like this outright is somewhat tricky, but asking them to surpass their team total is another matter. Let’s bank on some offensive success tonight for Washington.
Play: Wizards TT OV 117.5 (-115) – Playable up to (-125)
Phoenix Suns (-2, 240.5) at Golden State Warriors
Golden State’s offense has been on an incredible run recently. Since Draymond Green returned from his suspension the Warriors are +7.0 per 100 possessions in non-garbage time with a 121.0 offensive rating. They are 6-4 SU/7-3 ATS in those 10 games as well. The team’s confidence is building after a successful road trip, and I believe they are in position to pull this out tonight at home.
Phoenix has been on a similar run, going 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games. In those six games the Suns have averaged 127.9 points per 100 possessions with a +12.6 net rating. Even still, I believe these two teams to be closer to one another on a neutral than this line would indicate. Green makes the Warriors better, and guys like Jonathan Kuminga are playing extremely well. Give me the home underdog tonight.
Play: Warriors ML (+110) – Playable to (+100)
NBA Best Bets
Mavericks ML (+120)
Wizards TT OV 117.5 (-115)
Warriors ML (+110)