Eleven NBA games are on the docket on Saturday, headlined by an afternoon clash in Dallas. The Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Dallas Mavericks for a battle of playoff contenders in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is 35-16 and Dallas is 29-23 this season. Maxi Kleber (toe) is listed as questionable for the Mavericks, with Dante Exum (knee) and Derrick Lively II (nasal) ruled out. Gordon Hayward (calf) is out for the Thunder.
Tipoff is at 3 p.m. ET in Dallas. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists OKC as the 2-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 241.5 in the latest Thunder vs. Mavericks odds. Before making any Mavericks vs. Thunder picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 16 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 51-33 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $1,700. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Thunder vs. Mavs. You can head to SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Mavs vs. Thunder:
- Thunder vs. Mavericks spread: Thunder -2
- Thunder vs. Mavericks over/under: 241.5 points
- Thunder vs. Mavericks money line: Thunder -135, Mavericks +114
- OKC: The Thunder are 14-10-1 against the spread in road games
- DAL: The Mavericks are 11-16 against the spread in home games
- Thunder vs. Mavericks picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Thunder can cover
Oklahoma City has the clear edge on the defensive end in this game. Both teams deploy tremendous offenses, but the Thunder rank in the top five of the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up only 111.4 points per 100 possessions this season. Oklahoma City leads the league in turnovers created (15.7 per game) and blocked shots (6.6 per game), and the Thunder are in the top five in steals (8.2 per game). Opponents are shooting only 45.0% from the field against Oklahoma City, including just 51.1% inside the arc.
The Thunder are also near the top of the NBA in fast break points allowed (11.6 per game) and points allowed in the paint (46.1 per game). From there, Oklahoma City is scoring more than 1.19 points per possession on offense, with top-five marks in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, 2-point percentage and free throw percentage in 2023-24. The Thunder also value the ball at a high level, committing a turnover on only 12.4% of offensive possessions. See who to back at SportsLine.
Why the Mavericks can cover
Luka Doncic is in the midst of a dominant stretch. The Mavericks star is averaging 39.9 points, 10.4 assists and 10.3 rebounds per game in the last seven outings, shooting 52.3% from the field and 40.3% from 3-point range in that sample. Doncic is also leading the NBA with 34.6 points per game for the season, and he is in the top five of the NBA with 9.5 assists per contest. In the first meeting between these two games, Doncic erupted for 36 points, 18 assists and 15 rebounds, and he is the engine of a very strong offense.
Dallas is scoring more than 1.17 points per possession this season, and the Mavericks are No. 2 in the NBA in committing only 12.3 turnovers per game. That is a pivotal quality against Oklahoma City’s ball-hawking defense, and Dallas is also burying 15.2 3-pointers per game. The Mavericks can also take advantage of two glaring weaknesses for the Thunder, as Oklahoma City ranks in the bottom third of the NBA in defensive rebound rate (68.0%) and free throw prevention (24.1 attempts allowed per contest). See who to back at SportsLine.
How to make Mavericks vs. Thunder picks
The model has simulated Thunder vs. Mavericks 10,000 times and is leaning Under on the total, projecting 240 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time. You can only see the picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Thunder vs. Mavs, and which side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 51-33 roll on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.