Player props can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we’re going to focus on the former.
Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire’s daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Prop Bets
De’Andre Hunter Over 13.5 Points (-111)
The Atlanta Hawks have an implied total of 127.5 tonight, which is not only a slate-high but a season-high team total. This, plus the tight 4.0-point spread, indicates we could see high output from starters in this game, and I like De’Andre Hunter to outdo himself in this matchup against the Indiana Pacers.
Hunter was ejected in the second quarter of Atlanta’s most recent game, and before that, he had cleared this prop in just one out of six games. This may not seem like grounds for targeting a high-scoring game from him, but he averaged 18.0 points through five games to start the season, making him a great bounce-back candidate while his points prop is on the lower end.
The Pacers give up the second-most points to forwards per 36 minutes. And although Indiana gives up the second-most points in general, they are the most sacrificial to forwards.
Hunter scores 17.5% of his points from the free-throw line and draws the second-most fouls per 36 minutes on the Hawks. Indiana lets up more free-throw attempts to forwards than any other team in the league.
Indiana also allows more points in the paint than any other team in the league (including to forwards per 36 minutes) — Hunter scores 33.8% of his points in the paint.
Somehow, Indiana has managed to permit the second-most points per game, all while surrendering the least amount of three-point attempts from opponents.
This could raise some concerns, given that Hunter scores 37.0% of his points from behind the arc. However, the Pacers allow the fifth-highest three-point percentage (3P%) in the league, and Trae Young is really good at creating shots for others via his drives. No player in the league averages more assists off of drives than Young, so look for him to kick the ball out to Hunter in these scenarios.
Last season, Hunter played one game against the Pacers and put up 25 points.
Hunter is averaging 15.0 points at home this year. numberFire is handing the Hawks a 78.1% win probability tonight, and Hunter is averaging 19.5 points during home wins this season.
Evan Mobley To Record A Double-Double (+115)
Evan Mobley has scored 10-plus points in all but one of his 13 games this season. He is averaging 16.6 points on the year and 22.3 points in three games without Donovan Mitchell, who remains out for tonight’s clash with the Philadelphia 76ers.
This, and the fact that his odds to score 10-plus points tonight stand at -1050, is all the information I need when it comes to Mobley securing double-digits in the points department tonight.
Instead, we’ll focus on Mobley grabbing 10-plus boards, which is where his rebound line sits tonight. You can get Mobley over 9.5 rebounds at -106, so it makes sense to target a double-double at plus odds in lieu of that prop.
Mobley has recorded a double-double in eight out of 13 games this season. With Mitchell out, he has secured a double-double in three out of three games, so the added responsibility with the Cleveland Cavaliers‘ star guard missing benefits Mobley’s stat line.
While Joel Embiid and the Sixers aren’t the easiest of rebounding matchups, Philly permits the 14th-most offensive rebounds per game, and Mobley is grabbing 3.2 offensive boards each night.
He contests 1.8 offensive rebounds per game and could win the fight against a team like Philly, who sees the second-most defensive rebound chances on a given night.
Mobley is averaging a double-double, his numbers are even better without Mitchell on the court, and he’s actively on the prowl for offensive boards against a team that can be negligent in this regard — I’m siding with this prop at plus odds.
Lauri Markkanen Top Points Scorer in UTA-LAL (+330)
The Utah Jazz will visit the Los Angeles Lakers tonight, and I think Lauri Markkanen has a great chance to come out on top in the points column.
To start, let’s talk about Markkanen’s potential competition. Two players have higher point lines than him (23.5) tonight — LeBron James and Anthony Davis (both set at 25.5).
LeBron is questionable to play with a calf injury. He’s been amazing as of late, averaging 33.3 points over his last three games. But he has an injury designation and is coming off a 40-minute game from Sunday — so much for employing that load management. The Lakers have no business stretching LeBron thin in this one, so I’m taking his candidacy as tonight’s leading scorer a bit less seriously.
Davis can be taken more seriously, though there are still some issues in siding with him. He is listed as probable (hip) tonight and should suit up, but a potentially less-than-100% Davis is as vulnerable as it gets. Though he is the most dominant player on the court, his average of 22.0 points per game is less than Markkanen’s 24.8. Plus, he averaged just 22.0 points (to his 25.9 season average) in four games against Utah last season.
This brings us to Markkanen. He has been Utah’s leading scorer in eight games this season. Jordan Clarkson has been the leading Utah scorer in four games while Collin Sexton led the team once.
Markkanen has a higher points ceiling (38) and shoots more field-goal attempts (FGA; 17.2) than any other player in this game. He leads the Jazz in minutes per game (35.1), and the only other player in this game who sees more court time is Davis (35.7 minutes).
Leading the game in minutes or FGA doesn’t necessarily constitute a point-leading performance, but there is a good reason why Markkanen could find particular success against the Lakers.
Los Angeles gives up the fourth-most three-point attempts (3PA) to forwards per 36 minutes. Markkanen scores 42.9% of his points from downtown, shooting 8.8 3PA per game off of a solid 40.0% 3P%.
He shoots a team-leading 5.8 FGA from 25 to 29 feet from the basket, and the Lakers give up the second-most shot attempts from this range. He seems primed for a big performance from behind the arc, a feather in his cap that a player liked Davis — who has made just three three-pointers all season — is not afforded.
Further, Markkanen scores the third-most points in the league off of screens, and the Lakers allow the fifth-most off-screen points. He ranks 11th among all NBA players in putback points per game, and the Lakers sacrifice the eighth-most points per possession on putbacks.
Choosing a game’s top points scorer can be fickle on every given night, and perhaps I am placing too much emphasis on LeBron’s potential limitations. But I think Markkanen has a great matchup, and the +330 odds here are enticing.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.